I am including the absorbtion rate numbers for the first half of 2009 (developed by Jackie Theil of Long and Foster Realtors) in this blog entry. These are important numbers to watch because they predict the strength of the market and whether we are in an environment of rising or falling prices.
We professionals use the absorbtion rate as the most important information in gauging the real estate market. It basically answers the questions; How are homes selling? and how long will it take the existing home inventory to sell off given the rate of sales over the past six months?
The resulting number is "Months of supply of home inventory". Six months supply is ideal. At that level the housing market is stable. A number lower than six months would indicate more demand than supply and home prices rise. The opposite is true with a number greater than six months supply indicating supply greater than demand and prices fall.
Here are the numbers for June 30, 2009 stratified by price range:
Sales price range: Absorbtion rate:
< $150,000 8.48 month(s) $150,000-$300,000 10.30 month(s) $300,001-$450,000 12.47 month(s) $450,001 - $600,000 17.85 month(s) > $600,000 26.36 month(s)
In looking at these numbers you can tell that homes in the lower prices ranges are selling much better than higher priced homes. We are seeing this as a result of more first time buyers entering the market and taking advantage of the $ 8000 first time buyer tax credit.
This is good news for home sellers that what to move up to a higher priced home because the first time buyers are buying their homes and in turn those higher priced home sellers that selling to them and on up the chain.
Although the numbers indicate a greater than six month supply of homes in all price ranges, this is a marked improvement over prior periods. Some parts of the country have rates as high as 25 to 30 months of inventory overall.
It is a relief to see the numbers improving. Note that the buyers market will not last, so get out there and buy a home while prices are still affordable, especially if you are a first time buyer. Remember the tax credit expires December 1, 2009 and it could take more that sixty days to close, so get a home under contract before the end of September or earlier!
Kerry@kerryriley.com
http://www.kerryriley.com/
Kerry Riley of Long and Foster Realtors
409 Strawberry Street, Richmond VA 2322o
(804) 432-2688
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Redevelopment at GRTC Maintenance Site in Fan District
This is a reprint of the Times Dispatch article today
WILL JONES AND MICHAEL MARTZ TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITERPublished: July 15, 2009
Richmond Mayor Dwight C. Jones wants the city to buy the coveted site of GRTC Transit System next to the Fan District and to guide private development of the property.
Tammy D. Hawley, press secretary to Jones, confirmed the city's interest in the property, currently assessed at $3 million, and said the issue is being discussed by the boards of GRTC and the Richmond Redevelopment and Housing Authority. She said it is unclear what type of development might be planned and whether a sale to the city will occur.
"As I understand it, the idea would be . . . you'd go through a process of issuing a [request for proposals] for a particular type of development," she said. "No RFPs have been shaped for the type of development that would be pursued."
Officials at the housing authority did not return repeated calls for comment.
John M. Lewis Jr., chief executive officer of GRTC, deferred questions about a potential sale and development to the city, which is half owner of the transit system with Chesterfield County. However, he said any deal ultimately would have to satisfy the federal government, which has a financial stake in the transit system property.
"I must get market value," said Lewis, who expects the transit system to move to its new headquarters and operations center in South Richmond at the end of this year.
The Fan-area property, almost 7 acres along West Cary Street between Robinson Street and Stafford Avenue, has been viewed as a prime development site for a mixture of residences, businesses and offices ever since GRTC announced more than two years ago its plan to move.
"Even with today's difficult economy . . . it's still going to be a high demand for that site," said C. Lee Warfield, executive director of Thalhimer/Cushman & Wakefield, a commercial real estate brokerage in Richmond.
Warfield said the best option for making the most of the site would be a sale to a private developer.
"The best opportunity to get the highest quality project . . . would be to have an open process to look at all development opportunities instead of having the public sector develop it," he said.
Hawley emphasized that the city would be seeking private development of the property. She also said the city believes it should play an active role in the process because the site has significant potential.
"The mayor has said he wants the city to grow by design, not by default," she said.
The RRHA's potential involvement would not necessarily be a sign that low-income housing is envisioned, Hawley said. The authority manages public-housing units and a subsidized housing program, but it also routinely holds property for the city, including the Miller & Rhoads building downtown before it was developed as a Hilton Garden Inn and condominiums.
"It's not a foregone conclusion that it's low-income housing when RRHA is involved," Hawley said.
Second District Councilman Charles R. Samuels, whose district includes the Fan, said whatever happens to the property will have a major influence on surrounding neighborhoods. He expects to work closely with Councilman E. Martin Jewell, whose adjoining 5th District includes the GRTC site.
"That's a huge parcel of land, and there's a lot of potential for what may come out of it," Samuels said.
The Fan District Association hasn't been briefed on any potential sale or plan for development of the property, President Barbara Hartung said.
WILL JONES AND MICHAEL MARTZ TIMES-DISPATCH STAFF WRITERPublished: July 15, 2009
Richmond Mayor Dwight C. Jones wants the city to buy the coveted site of GRTC Transit System next to the Fan District and to guide private development of the property.
Tammy D. Hawley, press secretary to Jones, confirmed the city's interest in the property, currently assessed at $3 million, and said the issue is being discussed by the boards of GRTC and the Richmond Redevelopment and Housing Authority. She said it is unclear what type of development might be planned and whether a sale to the city will occur.
"As I understand it, the idea would be . . . you'd go through a process of issuing a [request for proposals] for a particular type of development," she said. "No RFPs have been shaped for the type of development that would be pursued."
Officials at the housing authority did not return repeated calls for comment.
John M. Lewis Jr., chief executive officer of GRTC, deferred questions about a potential sale and development to the city, which is half owner of the transit system with Chesterfield County. However, he said any deal ultimately would have to satisfy the federal government, which has a financial stake in the transit system property.
"I must get market value," said Lewis, who expects the transit system to move to its new headquarters and operations center in South Richmond at the end of this year.
The Fan-area property, almost 7 acres along West Cary Street between Robinson Street and Stafford Avenue, has been viewed as a prime development site for a mixture of residences, businesses and offices ever since GRTC announced more than two years ago its plan to move.
"Even with today's difficult economy . . . it's still going to be a high demand for that site," said C. Lee Warfield, executive director of Thalhimer/Cushman & Wakefield, a commercial real estate brokerage in Richmond.
Warfield said the best option for making the most of the site would be a sale to a private developer.
"The best opportunity to get the highest quality project . . . would be to have an open process to look at all development opportunities instead of having the public sector develop it," he said.
Hawley emphasized that the city would be seeking private development of the property. She also said the city believes it should play an active role in the process because the site has significant potential.
"The mayor has said he wants the city to grow by design, not by default," she said.
The RRHA's potential involvement would not necessarily be a sign that low-income housing is envisioned, Hawley said. The authority manages public-housing units and a subsidized housing program, but it also routinely holds property for the city, including the Miller & Rhoads building downtown before it was developed as a Hilton Garden Inn and condominiums.
"It's not a foregone conclusion that it's low-income housing when RRHA is involved," Hawley said.
Second District Councilman Charles R. Samuels, whose district includes the Fan, said whatever happens to the property will have a major influence on surrounding neighborhoods. He expects to work closely with Councilman E. Martin Jewell, whose adjoining 5th District includes the GRTC site.
"That's a huge parcel of land, and there's a lot of potential for what may come out of it," Samuels said.
The Fan District Association hasn't been briefed on any potential sale or plan for development of the property, President Barbara Hartung said.
Friday, July 10, 2009
Good News for over-mortgaged homes with adjusting rate loans
July 01, 2009
HUD SECRETARY DONOVAN ANNOUNCES EXPANDED ELIGIBILITY FOR MAKING HOME AFFORDABLE REFINANCINGAnnounces eligibility for borrowers up to 125% underwater in Las Vegas with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Congresswoman Dina Titus
WASHINGTON - U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan today announced an expansion of the Obama Administration's Home Affordable Refinance Program to include participation by borrowers who are current but up to 125 percent underwater on their mortgage. Under authorization provided by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, borrowers whose mortgages are currently owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now be allowed to refinance those loans according to the terms of the Home Affordable Refinance program established earlier this year.
Visit this site http://www.makinghomeaffordable.gov/ and click on "Eligibility" tab to see if you qualify.
Kerryriley.com
HUD SECRETARY DONOVAN ANNOUNCES EXPANDED ELIGIBILITY FOR MAKING HOME AFFORDABLE REFINANCINGAnnounces eligibility for borrowers up to 125% underwater in Las Vegas with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Congresswoman Dina Titus
WASHINGTON - U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan today announced an expansion of the Obama Administration's Home Affordable Refinance Program to include participation by borrowers who are current but up to 125 percent underwater on their mortgage. Under authorization provided by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, borrowers whose mortgages are currently owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will now be allowed to refinance those loans according to the terms of the Home Affordable Refinance program established earlier this year.
Visit this site http://www.makinghomeaffordable.gov/ and click on "Eligibility" tab to see if you qualify.
Kerryriley.com
Friday, June 26, 2009
More good news for first-time buyers
By Kerry Riley, Long and Foster Realtors, www.kerryriley.com
I have told you in the past about getting an $8,000 federal tax credit for first time buyers (hurry! This law expires Dec. 1, 2009), and VHDA monetizing the credit so you can apply to credit at closing.
I learned today that for those first time buyers (also people that have not owned in the past three years) who don't qualify for VHDA (for example if you earn more than $62,000) you can still get the tax credit soon by filing an amended 2008 tax return.
This way you can get back your cash very soon after closing.
Call Kerry Riley at (804) 432-2688 with questions and if you qualify and have not bought your home yet NOW is the time to act. Don't let this great buying envirnment pass you by...
I have told you in the past about getting an $8,000 federal tax credit for first time buyers (hurry! This law expires Dec. 1, 2009), and VHDA monetizing the credit so you can apply to credit at closing.
I learned today that for those first time buyers (also people that have not owned in the past three years) who don't qualify for VHDA (for example if you earn more than $62,000) you can still get the tax credit soon by filing an amended 2008 tax return.
This way you can get back your cash very soon after closing.
Call Kerry Riley at (804) 432-2688 with questions and if you qualify and have not bought your home yet NOW is the time to act. Don't let this great buying envirnment pass you by...
Thursday, June 25, 2009
Finding a job in a tight ecomony
I am sharing this great article by By Anthony Balderrama, CareerBuilder.com writer because so many of my friends are in transition right now. Check this out...
The same rules apply
The way you conduct a job search isn't going to change dramatically this year. If you're currently employed and plan to change jobs soon, don't up and quit without a plan. You don't want to find yourself jobless with no prospects if you can help it -- regardless of the economy. Employed or not, be aggressive in your tactics.
"The market is tougher:
There are fewer jobs, more candidates and hiring authorities are being more careful," says Tony Beshara, author of "Acing the Interview." "So a candidate has to really distinguish himself or herself even more from the competition. He or she [must] go above and beyond the average interview."
Job hunting is about getting noticed by employers. You don't want to blend in with every other person who responds to a job posting or walks into an interview. That's as true now as it was a decade ago. If you're a good employee, you'll be a good addition to the team -- but they'll never know that if you're just another faceless name in a pile of résumés.
To stay ahead of the pack, Beshara encourages you to research the hiring manager online -- use a search engine and social networking sites. If you have mutual contacts, drop their names during conversation so you become memorable. If you're lucky enough to get an interview, be just as prepared.
"Carry a portfolio of reports you have written demonstrating your skills or a 30-60-90 day plan as to what you would do the first 90 days of your employment. Do extra research on the company and the person you are interviewing, and maybe speak to their customers and find out how they are perceived," Beshara suggests.
No room for errorBecause companies don't have the budgets they had a year or two ago, they can't afford to waste time or money on finding a replacement who's anything less than perfect -- or at least close to perfect. Many employers aren't replacing vacation positions that aren't vital to operations. If they're willing to spend on a new hire, they want a qualified candidate who will stick around for a while. They also know that they have many job seekers for far fewer positions. The pressure is on you to be the best potential employee they'll come across in the hiring process.
"Everything, and I mean everything, in your interview matters -- your dress, your speech, your manners -- and employers can be very unforgiving in this market, especially when they still have plenty of candidates to choose from," Beshara warns. "It simply takes lots more practice and, since you can expect fewer interviews in the current market, practice really makes a difference."
A résumé with typos or unprofessional attire in an interview rarely bodes well for a job seeker. In 2009 such a misstep is guaranteed to get your name crossed off the list of potential candidates. Here are some things to consider during your 2009 job hunt.
Résumés
The incessant warning to avoid typos probably gets annoying and seems like redundant advice, but hiring managers repeatedly cite typographical errors as a top pet peeve. Think about it this way: You can't control whether the hiring manager ever picks up your résumé, whether your personality clicks with his or hers and whether you ultimately get the job. Conversely, your résumé is your creation. You went out of your way to type it up and send it to the company. What kind of message are you sending if you don't take responsibility for one of the few factors entirely within your control?
Interviews
The interview is a two-way street, where you need to sell yourself to the hiring manager and he or she needs to sell the company to you. Let the company do its part and focus on yours. You always want to prove to the employer that you're looking for longevity -- in a competitive job market, it's vital. Explain that a position where you can learn, grow and be a team member for longer than a few months is your ideal situation. If the hiring manager gets the feeling that you're desperate to find any job just to earn a paycheck, you'll be out the door before you set your bag down. Employers don't want to spend the money training someone they'll be replacing in four months.
Don't get lazy
Browse job boards, search the classifieds, walk around the neighborhood -- look for jobs wherever you can. Some employers don't want to spend a lot of money advertising a job opening, so reach out to companies that might not have a job opening listed, as they might be quietly searching for new employees.
Network
Your connections, both social and professional, are invaluable resources during a job hunt. Even friends of friends you've only met at a cocktail party are worth touching base with during a job hunt. When you let people know that you're looking for a new job, they'll keep you in mind if they run across an open position at their workplaces or if they hear about one at a friend's company. You can cover more ground than if you search alone.
The same rules apply
The way you conduct a job search isn't going to change dramatically this year. If you're currently employed and plan to change jobs soon, don't up and quit without a plan. You don't want to find yourself jobless with no prospects if you can help it -- regardless of the economy. Employed or not, be aggressive in your tactics.
"The market is tougher:
There are fewer jobs, more candidates and hiring authorities are being more careful," says Tony Beshara, author of "Acing the Interview." "So a candidate has to really distinguish himself or herself even more from the competition. He or she [must] go above and beyond the average interview."
Job hunting is about getting noticed by employers. You don't want to blend in with every other person who responds to a job posting or walks into an interview. That's as true now as it was a decade ago. If you're a good employee, you'll be a good addition to the team -- but they'll never know that if you're just another faceless name in a pile of résumés.
To stay ahead of the pack, Beshara encourages you to research the hiring manager online -- use a search engine and social networking sites. If you have mutual contacts, drop their names during conversation so you become memorable. If you're lucky enough to get an interview, be just as prepared.
"Carry a portfolio of reports you have written demonstrating your skills or a 30-60-90 day plan as to what you would do the first 90 days of your employment. Do extra research on the company and the person you are interviewing, and maybe speak to their customers and find out how they are perceived," Beshara suggests.
No room for errorBecause companies don't have the budgets they had a year or two ago, they can't afford to waste time or money on finding a replacement who's anything less than perfect -- or at least close to perfect. Many employers aren't replacing vacation positions that aren't vital to operations. If they're willing to spend on a new hire, they want a qualified candidate who will stick around for a while. They also know that they have many job seekers for far fewer positions. The pressure is on you to be the best potential employee they'll come across in the hiring process.
"Everything, and I mean everything, in your interview matters -- your dress, your speech, your manners -- and employers can be very unforgiving in this market, especially when they still have plenty of candidates to choose from," Beshara warns. "It simply takes lots more practice and, since you can expect fewer interviews in the current market, practice really makes a difference."
A résumé with typos or unprofessional attire in an interview rarely bodes well for a job seeker. In 2009 such a misstep is guaranteed to get your name crossed off the list of potential candidates. Here are some things to consider during your 2009 job hunt.
Résumés
The incessant warning to avoid typos probably gets annoying and seems like redundant advice, but hiring managers repeatedly cite typographical errors as a top pet peeve. Think about it this way: You can't control whether the hiring manager ever picks up your résumé, whether your personality clicks with his or hers and whether you ultimately get the job. Conversely, your résumé is your creation. You went out of your way to type it up and send it to the company. What kind of message are you sending if you don't take responsibility for one of the few factors entirely within your control?
Interviews
The interview is a two-way street, where you need to sell yourself to the hiring manager and he or she needs to sell the company to you. Let the company do its part and focus on yours. You always want to prove to the employer that you're looking for longevity -- in a competitive job market, it's vital. Explain that a position where you can learn, grow and be a team member for longer than a few months is your ideal situation. If the hiring manager gets the feeling that you're desperate to find any job just to earn a paycheck, you'll be out the door before you set your bag down. Employers don't want to spend the money training someone they'll be replacing in four months.
Don't get lazy
Browse job boards, search the classifieds, walk around the neighborhood -- look for jobs wherever you can. Some employers don't want to spend a lot of money advertising a job opening, so reach out to companies that might not have a job opening listed, as they might be quietly searching for new employees.
Network
Your connections, both social and professional, are invaluable resources during a job hunt. Even friends of friends you've only met at a cocktail party are worth touching base with during a job hunt. When you let people know that you're looking for a new job, they'll keep you in mind if they run across an open position at their workplaces or if they hear about one at a friend's company. You can cover more ground than if you search alone.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
FHA loans are the best deal at the moment for cash strapped buyers
The government backed FHA loan is currently one the best options available to most buyers who can't put 10-20% down on a home purchase. The Federal Home Adminstration (FHA) offers a loan program administered by banks and mortgage companies with just a 3.5% downpayment requirement.
This is the lowest down-payment option available in the current lending environment and you don't have to perfect credit to qualify. A credit score of 580 or above is necessary for FHA. The closer your score is to 720 or higher then the better the rate.
These loans are available on single family and approved condos up to a sales price of 535,900 in Richmond.
Here are the basic requirements:
Two Years of steady employment, preferably with same employer.
Last two years Income should be the same or increasing.
Credit report should typically have less than two thirty day lates in last two years with a minimum credit score of 580 or higher or no credit score at all.
Bankruptcy's must be at least two years old, with perfect credit since discharge.
Foreclosure's must be at least three years old, with perfect credit since.
Your new mortgage payment should be approximately 30% of your gross (before taxes) income
I have a good mortgage lender in my office if you would like more information or would like to apply. Now is a great time to buy with a high inventory of homes available, low interest rates, an $ 8,000 federal tax credit for first time buyers and sellers that are more negotiable in paying closing costs.
Call Kerry Riley at 804-432-2688 for more information.
This is the lowest down-payment option available in the current lending environment and you don't have to perfect credit to qualify. A credit score of 580 or above is necessary for FHA. The closer your score is to 720 or higher then the better the rate.
These loans are available on single family and approved condos up to a sales price of 535,900 in Richmond.
Here are the basic requirements:
Two Years of steady employment, preferably with same employer.
Last two years Income should be the same or increasing.
Credit report should typically have less than two thirty day lates in last two years with a minimum credit score of 580 or higher or no credit score at all.
Bankruptcy's must be at least two years old, with perfect credit since discharge.
Foreclosure's must be at least three years old, with perfect credit since.
Your new mortgage payment should be approximately 30% of your gross (before taxes) income
I have a good mortgage lender in my office if you would like more information or would like to apply. Now is a great time to buy with a high inventory of homes available, low interest rates, an $ 8,000 federal tax credit for first time buyers and sellers that are more negotiable in paying closing costs.
Call Kerry Riley at 804-432-2688 for more information.
Monday, June 22, 2009
Signs of recovery starting to show in Virgina according to Brookings Institution
Signs of a recovering economy in Virginia
Brookings Institute study says Va headed for economic recoveryby Ben Martin, blogmaster emeritus on June 17, 2009
Research from the Brookings Institute on the economic conditions in the country’s 100 largest metro areas released this month indicates that Virginia may already be recovering from the nation’s economic downturn.Brookings ranked the 100 metros on overall economic health. Washington DC ranked 14th, Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News ranked 16th, and Richmond ranked 46th.
In the report, all three Virginia-area metros are cited as showing signs of economic recovery: Richmond, Washington DC, and Virginia Beach each showed growth in employment and output in the first quarter of 2009.Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Washington DC, and Richmond were ranked three, four and five respectively for percent change in Gross Metropolitan Product from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009.
One significant blemish for Virginia: The DC area is still showing 6.49 REOs per 1000 mortgageable properties, making it the 11th worst performer in that category.A strong government and/or military employment presence in all three of Virginia’s major metro areas bodes well for economic recovery the Commonwealth, as these employment sectors tend to be insulated from large employment declines.
Standing in stark contrast to the gloomy Case-Schiller index, the Brookings Institute report shows that 38 of the top 100 metro areas saw no decline in home prices over the past 12 months.We have seen a decrease in the inventory of homes for sale for the month of May.
Glad to pass on good news! Call Kerry Riley with specific questions about market conditions in your neighborhood at (804) 432-2688.
Brookings Institute study says Va headed for economic recoveryby Ben Martin, blogmaster emeritus on June 17, 2009
Research from the Brookings Institute on the economic conditions in the country’s 100 largest metro areas released this month indicates that Virginia may already be recovering from the nation’s economic downturn.Brookings ranked the 100 metros on overall economic health. Washington DC ranked 14th, Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News ranked 16th, and Richmond ranked 46th.
In the report, all three Virginia-area metros are cited as showing signs of economic recovery: Richmond, Washington DC, and Virginia Beach each showed growth in employment and output in the first quarter of 2009.Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Washington DC, and Richmond were ranked three, four and five respectively for percent change in Gross Metropolitan Product from Q4 2008 to Q1 2009.
One significant blemish for Virginia: The DC area is still showing 6.49 REOs per 1000 mortgageable properties, making it the 11th worst performer in that category.A strong government and/or military employment presence in all three of Virginia’s major metro areas bodes well for economic recovery the Commonwealth, as these employment sectors tend to be insulated from large employment declines.
Standing in stark contrast to the gloomy Case-Schiller index, the Brookings Institute report shows that 38 of the top 100 metro areas saw no decline in home prices over the past 12 months.We have seen a decrease in the inventory of homes for sale for the month of May.
Glad to pass on good news! Call Kerry Riley with specific questions about market conditions in your neighborhood at (804) 432-2688.
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